Saudi Hormuz Oil Shipments Surge as Post-War Tanker Backlog Clears

Saudi Arabia's Oil Exports Through Hormuz Jump 15-Fold Amid Post-War Recovery

Saudi Arabia shipped approximately 34 million barrels of oil through the Strait of Hormuz in the two weeks ending July 1, more than double the volume recorded during the conflict-affected period from March 9 to June 17, according to Kpler data. The surge reflects both the clearing of stranded tankers and a gradual resumption of export operations from key Gulf terminals, including Ras Tanura and Juaymah.

While the pickup suggests more than a one-off catch-up, daily throughput remains well below historical averages. Around 8.5 million barrels passed through the strait on Wednesday, compared to an average of nearly 15 million barrels per day in 2025. This underscores the early stage of recovery and potential for further upside as confidence in the waterway's safety grows.

Implications for Global Supply and Risk Sentiment

The revival in Saudi shipments could ease tightness in global oil markets, particularly if sustained. However, the lingering backlog—approximately 17 million barrels of pre-war oil still stranded in the Gulf—highlights ongoing logistical challenges. Traders are likely monitoring whether the current trajectory signals a durable normalization or a temporary rebound.

Geopolitical tensions in the Gulf have historically amplified risk-off sentiment, pressuring risk-sensitive currencies like the Australian dollar and emerging market assets. A stable Hormuz flow could temper such volatility, offering support to commodity-linked currencies and equities.

Forex and Macro Market Outlook

The DXY (US Dollar Index) may face downward pressure if oil supply concerns ease, as lower energy prices typically reduce inflationary pressures. Central banks, particularly those in oil-importing nations, could adjust monetary policy expectations if crude benchmarks decline. Conversely, prolonged supply disruptions would keep energy costs elevated, complicating inflation dynamics and rate-cut timelines.

Technical indicators suggest oil markets remain sensitive to geopolitical developments. The Brent crude futures curve is likely to stay in focus, with traders watching for signs of inventory drawdowns or renewed shipping bottlenecks.

Risk Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Market conditions are subject to rapid change, and past performance is not indicative of future results.