Goldman Sachs Adjusts TTF Gas Forecasts, Warns of Hormuz Risk Impacting European Energy Markets

Goldman Sachs Maintains TTF Gas Forecasts, Cites Hormuz Risk as Key Upside Driver

Goldman Sachs kept its second-half 2026 TTF gas price forecast unchanged at 41 EUR/MWh and its 2027 average forecast at 30 EUR/MWh, marginally lower than prior estimates of 42/30 EUR/MWh. However, the bank pushed its LNG flow normalization timeline to end-July, a month later than the previous end-June assumption, signaling slower-than-expected physical market recovery post-MOU signing.

The delay reflects ongoing hesitancy among shipowners and insurers to resume normal routing through the Hormuz Strait, with nearly 500 vessels reportedly still anchored despite the US-Iran memorandum of understanding. This cautious approach underscores the fragility of the current geopolitical settlement and its impact on energy supply chains.

Hormuz Blockade Risk Quantified at 100+ EUR/MWh

The most market-sensitive element of Goldman's analysis is the quantification of the Hormuz blockade risk. A sustained disruption could force TTF prices above 100 EUR/MWh this winter, more than doubling the bank's 2H26 base case. Such a scenario would trigger severe demand destruction in Asia to rebalance European markets, exacerbating energy costs for households and industry during the heating season.

While not the central case, the explicit risk level serves as a critical anchor for trader positioning, particularly amid elevated volatility in global energy markets. The potential shock would likely intensify inflationary pressures in the eurozone, pressuring the European Central Bank to maintain restrictive monetary policy longer than currently priced in.

Long-Term Bearish Outlook Amid LNG Supply Expansion

Goldman maintains a bearish stance on TTF gas prices for 2028-29, forecasting 19-16 EUR/MWh, with downside risks skewed to the latter period. The long-run pessimism stems from expectations of significant LNG supply additions, which are projected to overwhelm current market tightness and cap long-term price trajectories.

This structural shift poses implications for global risk sentiment, as energy markets remain a key input for inflation and growth forecasts. For Forex traders, the interplay between European energy dynamics and monetary policy divergence could weigh on EURUSD and DXY pairs, particularly if energy shocks disrupt economic recovery timelines.

Risk Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only. Trading decisions should consider individual risk tolerance and market conditions. Past performance does not guarantee future results.